Hadley Cantril's Laws of Public Opinion

Hadley Cantril was a very successful 1940s sociologist and public opinion researcher. These are his key laws out of about 15 total...

Opinion is highly sensitive to important events.

Events of unusual magnitude are likely to swing public opinion from one extreme to another. Opinion does not become stabilized until time has passed and people can see events with perspective. (Example: the Susan Smith case.)

Opinion is determined more by events than by words. (This is especially true in today's TV generation. We can all remember the pictures of the infamous OJ Simpson 'white Bronco chase'- but can you remember the day, date, or time the chase took place? Where did the chase start?)

Public opinion does not anticipate emergencies, it reacts to them. (The world is going to run out of oil - by some estimates - within my lifetime. Is there any great public concern about this now? No. And in fact gas-guzzling Dodge Viper sales are fairly healthy, thank you.)

Opinion is based on people's self-interest. Events, words, or other stimuli are important to us to the extent they affect our self-interest. (Example: the U.S. presidency was recently held by a repeated adulterer who subsequently broke federal law by lying under oath about his sexual escapades. But, the economy was doing well and most citizens had jobs and good lives. So, it was not in most people's self-interest to be concerned about our reprobate Chief Executive.)

Opinion does not remain aroused for a long period of time, unless people feel their self-interest is affected. (Example: What horrible tragedy happened in Nigeria last year?)

Once self-interest is involved, public opinion is not easily changed.

When self-interest is involved, public opinion in a democracy is likely to be ahead of official policy. (Example: After the OKC bombing, when the public was acutely aware of the potential for terrorist acts on U.S. soil, how fast did the public push for tougher anti-terrorism laws? How fast did Congress write, debate, and approve such laws? (Answers: Immediately on the former; within days, on the latter.) Is this the normal speed at which Congress works?

Dr. Doug Swanson, CST 360