National Academy of Sciences Study on

Technical Issues Related to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty

David Hafemeister,

Physics Department, Cal Poly University

 

After the 51-48 defeat of the CTBT in the Senate, General John Schalikashvili (Former JCS Chair, Spec. Advisor to Pres. Clinton for CTBT) commissioned NAS to examine the following technical issues, which will be summarized in the talk. [See Oct-2002 Physics Today, p. 25-26 for a summary, or http://www.nap.edu/html/ctbt for complete text.]

Beyond START/SORT: Monitoring Warheads and Pu/HEU

David Hafemeister

Physics Dept., Cal Poly University

The 2002 Strategic Offense Reduction Treaty and the Cooperative Threat Reduction program will be briefly reviewed. The Biden Condition to START (1992) and the Clinton/Yeltsin agreement in Helsinki (1997) called for more extensive monitoring of nuclear warheads and nuclear materials, but this approach was not adopted in SORT. If the US/RF are to go to lower total warhead numbers, say 1000 as compared to the 10,000 under SORT, it is paramount that monitoring technologies be more completely developed. The attribute and template approaches for monitoring warheads and nuclear materials will be described. The size of the Russian stockpile of plutonium/HEU will be estimated from "first principles" and some monitoring approaches for these materials will be described. The guiding criteria for adoption of these technologies will be considered against the standard of effective verification.

 

Nuclear Proliferation in the Post-Soviet World

David Hafemeister

Physics Dept., Cal Poly University

The historic ups and downs on the basic bargain of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty will be briefly discussed

The Russian stockpile of plutonium/HEU will be estimated from "first principles." Control for the Russian materials will be described in terms of the wide ranging Cooperative Threat Reduction Initiative. The purchase of 500 tonnes of Russian HEU will be briefly analyzed, and projected to other possibilities. The attribute and template approaches to monitor warheads will be described. The guiding criteria for adoption of these technologies will be considered against the standard of effective verification.

The global stockpile of plutonium will be estimated from "first principles." The difference between reactor grade Pu and weapon grade Pu will be briefly analyzed. The economics of the plutonium economy will be briefly analyzed in terms of capital costs, the price of uranium and the growth of nuclear power. The shift of the threat from Pu to HEU will be commented on, as well as the link to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

 

 

Verification of Arms Control Treaties

David Hafemeister

Physics Department

California Polytechnic University

 

To monitor compliance to arms control agreements it is necessary to have regimes that use declarations, inspections and few modest challenge inspections. We will emphasize technical aspects (and modest calculations) for "effective" verification on the following

 

 

The Energy Situation in 2003

David Hafemeister

Physics Department, Cal Poly University

The conclusions of the APS-POPA energy study of 1996 are still relevant today, and they will be briefly discussed in terms of recent trends. Cars, refrigerators and houses have greatly improved, but yet energy use continues to climb. The best news on the supply side is the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine. The talk will use basic models to do the following:

King Hubbert’s model for petroleum resources will be extended to include economics.

Combined cycle gas turbine efficiency will be shown to be about 60%.

The cost-of conserved energy and life-cycle costs will be used to examine some conservation measures.

 

Energy in Buildings

David Hafemeister

Physics Dept., Cal Poly University

The operation of buildings consumes almost 40% of US energy and 65% of US electricity. The technical progress in reducing waste energy will be briefly discussed.

A basic building model will be developed to obtain basic physics results. The model takes into account the following:

 

Basic Climate Change Calculations

David Hafemeister

Physics Department, Cal Poly University

Using global consumption rate of fossil fuels, the carbon dioxide level will be projected into the middle of this century. Working backwards in time, the carbon dioxide level is estimated at the beginning of the industrial revolution. Using a multi-layered box model the temperature rise at the surface of Earth and Venus are estimated under a wide variety of circumstances. It is believed that doubling carbon dioxide increases Earth’s cloudiness, but it is not known exactly what the additional cloud cover will do to the surface temperature of the Earth. We vary some of the cloud parameters to discuss the effects of high clouds vs. low clouds. Early results from the ocean thermal tomography experiments are roughly analyzed in terms of a solar-thermal coupling to the oceans. The Kyoto-Bonn caps will be examined.

 

 

The Failure to Link EM Fields and Cancer.

David Hafemeister

Physics Department, Cal Polytechnic University

Since the 1979 epidemiology study by Wertheimer and Leeper, there has been a large public and scientific response to the possibility that cancer can be caused the electromagnetic fields. This talk will review some of the (1) epidemiology, (2) biophysics experiments, (3) litigation, mitigation, regulations, and prudent avoidance. Most of the talk will apply Maxwell’s equations to some aspect of the interaction of 60 Hz EM fields to biological matter.